The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – October 2022

Improvement in West Bank and a drop in Gaza Strip

The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) revealed that the overall index for Palestine has improved from -5.0 points in September to -4.3 points in October after its increase in the West Bank and despite its decline in Gaza Strip.

The overall index in the West Bank increased from -1.7 points in September to 0.4 points in October, which reflect the increase in the construction index (from -4.1 to -1), in addition to an increase in the manufacturing index (from 2 to 3), and the agriculture index (from 1.3 to 2.2). On the contrary, the renewable energy index decreased (from 0.5 to         -0.5), and the transportation and storage index (from 0.5 to -1.0). Meanwhile, the trade index was stable at -2.1 points, and the IT and communications index at -0.2 points.

In general, firms’ owners in the West Bank indicated to an increase in production and sales levels, as well as in inventory. At the same time, their expectations were negative about production levels for the next three months.

In Gaza Strip, the overall index declined from -21.8 points in September to -28.8 points in October, as the manufacturing index decreased (from -0.3 to -2.2), the trade index (from -9 to -11.4), the agriculture index (from -2.4 to -3.6), and the renewable energy index (from -2.1 to -3.7). On the contrary, the construction index increased (from -8.8 to -8.2). Whereas the transportation and storage index and the IT and communications indices were stabilized at around 0.4 points, and -0.2 points, respectively.

Firms’ owners in Gaza Strip indicated to a decrease in production and sales levels, in addition to a decrease in inventory level. Moreover, their expectations about production and employment levels for the next three months were negative.

PMA Business Cycle Index (point)*

Source: PMA (2022). PMABCI, October 2022.

* The maximum value is +100 (favorable economic performance), while the minimum is -100 (economic deterioration).

** Estimated value for Gaza Strip.