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The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – July 2021
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The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – July 2021

A slight improvement in West Bank and Gaza Strip

The results of PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) revealed a slight improvement in the overall index, recording -11.8 point during July compared to -14.9 point in June, due to the enhancement in both West Bank and Gaza Strip.

In West Bank, the index maintain its increase in July from 5.3 point to 8.9 point after loosening the containment measures, and returning life to the markets. This upward trend headed by the increase in the trade index (from 0.3 to 2.2), mainly, due to the Eid Al-adha celebration, followed by the agricultural index (from 3.6 to 5.4) and the construction index (from -1.0 to -0.3). However, the transport and storage sector was the only exception, where the index declined (from 1.2 to 0.5). In the meantime, the rest of indices remained relatively stable at 0.9 point in the manufacturing sector, 0.1 point in the IT and communication sector and 0.0 point in the renewable energy sector.

In general, according to the respondent firms in West Bank, the increase in sales level that coincided with a drop in production level caused a reduction in the accumulated inventory. In the meanwhile, firm's owners have an optimistic expectation in the next three months for production level, despite the negative expectation for employment level in the near future.

In Gaza Strip, even though the overall index kept recording a relatively low level, it managed to rise during July to -60.6 point compared to -62.5 point in June. This was driven by the only increase in the trade index (from -40.6 to -38.1), due to the ease of Israeli measurements and the expansion of the range of goods allowed in and out of the Gaza Strip, as well as the expansion of the permissible fishing zone[1]. On the other hand, the rest of the sub-indices remained close to their previous levels with a negative tendency. Recording -11.7 point in the manufacturing index, -5.4 point in the agricultural index, -2.8 point in the construction index and -1.9 in the transport and storage index. In addition to the IT and communication index and the renewable energy index, that registered -0.5 point and -0.1 point, respectively.    

In the meantime, the surveyed firms in Gaza strip pointed to a slight increase in production level, accompanied with a bigger one in sales, which led to a drop in the accumulated inventory. However, expectations remained negative for the next three months regarding to employment and production levels.  

 


[1] https://www.ochaopt.org/poc/29-june-12-july-2021.

 

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