The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – January 2022

A slight improvement in both West Bank and Gaza Strip

The results of the PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) revealed an increase in the overall index, from -8.0 point during December 2021 to -5.7 during January 2022, after the improvement in both; West Bank and Gaza Strip.

In West Bank, the overall index increased from -1.5 point in December to -0.6 point in January. This increase refers to the notable improvement in the construction index (from -3.9 to 0.7), followed by the manufacturing index (from 0.3 to 0.7). In contrast, the agricultural index decreased (from 4.0 to 0.4), in addition to the decline in the trade index (from -3.8 to -4.5). In the meanwhile, the remaining sub-indices remained relatively stable, recording 0.0 point for the renewable energy index, and 1.0 point for both of IT and communication index, and transportation and storage index. 

In general, surveyed firms in the West Bank pointed to an improvement in production level, against stabilizing sales level, which led to an increase in the accumulated inventory. In the meantime, their expectation remained negative for production and employment levels in the near future.

In addition, the overall index in Gaza Strip has improved from -41.0 point in December to -31.9 point in January. This trend was driven by the remarkable increase in the agricultural index (from -3.6 to 2.4), in addition to the rise in manufacturing index (from -6.4 to -4.3), renewable energy index -after along stabilized period- (from -4.8 to -3.2), and transportation and storage index (from -1.5 to -0.8). On the other side, the construction index fell (from -9.1 to -10.1), followed by the trade index (from -15.4 to -15.8). While the IT and communication index stayed relatively stable around -0.1 point.

In general, the surveyed firms in Gaza Strip pointed to a larger increase in the sales level compared to the production, which led to a decrease in the accumulated inventory. This improvement affected their expectation positively for production and employment levels in the next three months.