The PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) – August 2021 An improvement in Gaza Strip, compared to a slight drop in West Bank

The results indicate that the overall PMA Business Cycle Index (PMABCI) is relatively stable during August at around –11.9 point compared to -11.8 point in July, due to a contrast performance trends in West Bank and Gaza Strip, where the index witnessed a decrease in the West Bank compared to an improvement in the Gaza Strip

In West Bank, the index  declined from 8.9 point in July to 6.5 point in August, due to notable drop in the agricultural index (from 5.4 to 3.1), followed by the trade index (from 2.2 to 0.7). In the meanwhile, the rest of indices remained relatively stable at 0.4 point to the transport and storage index, 0.2 to the IT and communication index, -0.2 point to the construction index and finally 0.0 point to the renewable energy index. However, the manufacturing index was the only exception, where it improved from 0.9 to 2.1.

In general, firm's owners in West Bank have an optimistic expectation for production and employment levels during the next three months, which reflected in an increase of their production level, despite the decline of the sales level. 

On the other hand, the overall index in Gaza Strip improved to -55.2 point in August compared to -60.6 point in July, after recording one of its lowest levels during the last few months due to the political tension and the Israeli aggression in May. Manufacturing index leads this improvement by an increase (from -11.7 to -9.0), followed by the trade index (from -38.1 to -36.1), then the agricultural index (from -5.4 to -5.0). According to the firm’s owners in Gaza, this improvement is due to the returning to normal situation and increase in demand. Meanwhile, the rest of indices stayed relatively stable around its previous level, where renewable energy index settled  at around -0.1 point, construction index -2.8 point, transport and storage index -1.9 point and the IT and communication index stabilized at -0.3 point.

In general, the surveyed firms in Gaza strip pointed a slight but uneven increase in production and sales levels. In addition, the expectation of the employment and production levels in

the near future were positive.

PMA Business Cycle Index (point)*

Source: PMA (2021). PMABCI, August 2021.

* The maximum value is +100 (favorable economic performance), while the minimum is -100 (bad economic performance).

** Estimated value for Gaza Strip.